Title The Economic Consequence of Climate Change
Subtitle
Author OECD
ISBN 9789264235403
List price USD 36.00
Price outside India Available on Request
Original price
Binding Paperback
No of pages 110
Book size 204 X 254 mm
Publishing year 2017
Original publisher Brookings Institution Press
Published in India by Brookings Institution Press
Exclusive distributors Viva Books Private Limited
Sales territory India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, .
Status New Arrival
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Description:

This report provides a new, detailed, quantitative assessment of the consequences of climate change on economic growth through 2060 and beyond. It focuses on how climate change affects different drivers of growth, including labor productivity and capital supply, in different sectors across the world. The sectoral and regional analysis shows that while the impacts of climate change spread across all sectors and all regions, the largest negative consequences are projected to be found in the health and agricultural sectors, with damages especially strong in Africa and Asia.

This report provides a detailed global quantitative assessment of the direct and indirect economic consequences of climate change (i.e. climate damages) for a selected number of impacts: changes in crop yields, loss of land and capital due to sea level rise, changes in fisheries catches, capital damages from hurricanes, labour productivity changes and changes in healthcare expenditures from diseases and heat stress, changes in tourism flows, and changes in energy demand for cooling and heating. Other major impacts of climate change are investigated outside the modelling framework.

Most existing studies of climate damages have a stylised, aggregated representation of the economy. This report uses a detailed multi-sectoral, multi-regional dynamic general equilibrium modelling framework (the OECD ENV-Linkages model) to link climate change impacts to specific aspects of economic activity, such as labour productivity, the supply of production factors such as capital, and changes in the structure of demand. This detailed analysis is used to assess damages until 2060, and is complemented by a more stylised analysis of post-2060 damages (using the AD-DICE integrated assessment model).

This report presents only one possible economic scenario and it cannot capture all impacts of climate change. It is not a prediction of what will happen, nor a synthesis of the full consequences of climate change. It sheds light, however, on how the selected impacts affect the composition of Grass Domestic Product (GDP) over time and how sectoral consequences spill over to other sectors and regions.

The modelling is based on existing estimates of how selected climate impacts affect the drivers of economic growth of major world regions at the macroeconomic and sectoral level. This so-called production function approach allows for a detailed assessment of a subset of the direct and indirect consequences of climate change for the economy for a selected number of climate change impacts. The analysis assumes no mitigation actions are taken beyond those that are already adopted, and only market-driven adaptation measures are considered.

The projections do not capture all considerable uncertainties and risks from climate change that could potentially lead to much larger damages (especially in the long-run), or result in smaller economic consequences than in the central projection. Some major uncertainties stem from assumptions on economic growth, demographics, the response of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, projections of regional climate, and the valuation of climate change impacts. Large downside risks of climate change are associated with uncertainty about the response of the climate system to temperature increases beyond 2°C, irreversible tipping points, and the non-market impacts of climate change. Of these sources of uncertainties, the range of GDP consequences provided below reflects only the uncertainties relative to the response of the climate system to increasing GHG concentrations.

Contents:

Acronyms and abbreviations

Executive summary 

Chapter 1. Modelling the economic consequences of climate change • Introduction • Main consequences of climate change • A framework to study climate change impacts on economic growth • Modelling of sectoral and regional climate impacts • Notes • References

Chapter 2. The damages from selected climate change impacts to 2060 • The no-damage “baseline” projection • Central macroeconomic and regional projections of damages from selected climate change impacts • Notes • References

Chapter 3. The bigger picture of climate change • Costs of inaction beyond 2060 • Other consequences of climate change: Mortality, floods, and tipping points • Notes • References

Chapter 4. The benefits of policy action • Policy making under uncertainty for inter-temporal issues • Economic trade-offs between adaptation, mitigation and climate damages • Sectoral and regional consequences of mitigation action • Notes • References

Annex I. Description of the modelling tools

Target Audience:

People interested in Climate Change and its Economic Impact.

 

 
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